After a 99-day lockout and a shortened spring training, the regular season is finally here! With the addition of one more playoff spot in each league, this season could be filled with more excitement and drama than ever. In this article, I will be breaking down each division in the National League and give my predictions on who I think will make the playoffs, and who will fall just short.
West
Heading into last season, everyone expected the NL West to be a very competitive two-team race between two teams many had pegged to possible be the best in the league – the Dodgers and the Padres. What we got, was an extremely competitive two-team race that went all the way down to the final day of the season between the two best teams in the sport – the Dodgers and the…Giants? Yes, the Giants shocked the baseball world and not just made the playoffs but ended the Dodgers’ 8-year reign as division champs and won a franchise record 107 games. This year, while they likely won’t win over 100 games, the Giants are expected to be a competitive team again. However, they did lose Kevin Gausman and Buster Posey who were vital to their success last year, and it will remain to be seen if the players they’ve brought in to “replace” them will be enough.
In my opinion, the Dodgers are the team to beat in the West. They are going to make the playoffs, and will likely recapture the division title. They did lose All-Star shortstop Corey Seager to the Rangers, but they signed the best first baseman in the game, Freddie Freeman. Their starting pitching is by far their biggest weakness. They have two of the best young pitchers in the game in Walker Buehler and Julio Urías at the top of their rotation, but then there are some uncertainties. There is still no clarity on the Trevor Bauer situation, Kershaw is coming off an injury plagued season, and the rest are players that haven’t found great success yet as starters. They will find a way to cover the innings, but something that looked like a great strength a year ago, has turned into their biggest weakness.
The Padres are a bit of a wildcard. They were full of excitement and high expectations heading into last season, but ended up having an overwhelmingly disappointing season. Their biggest offseason addition may have been bringing in 3-time manager of the year Bob Melvin as their new skipper. He will be great for this team as they look to make the playoffs, if not win the division. Their biggest concern is health. Last season, their rotation dealt with numerous injuries and poor performance. They need their All-Star starters to remain healthy and pitch to the levels that they are capable of. They also need Fernando Tatis Jr. to stay on the field for as many games as possible. He is already going to miss about three months due to a fractured wrist that he sustained in a motorcycle accident this offseason. When healthy, he’s one of the best in the games, but that has proven to be easier said than done.
The Rockies and Diamondbacks are still rebuilding. The Rockies surprised everyone when they signed former MVP and World Series champion Kris Bryant to a 7-year deal as they aren’t expected to compete right now. They have a decent pitching staff, and some good position players, but they still have a way to go. They will be a feisty team, but won’t be close to any playoff spots. The Diamondbacks are coming off a horrific 110-loss season, and while they may not lose that many again, they will still likely finish last in the division.
Central
This is the Brewers’ division to lose. They have one of the best rotations in the game led by 2021 Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, and a great bullpen with arguably the best closer in the game, Josh Hader. They won 95 games last season, and I envision them to finish with a similar record. Their biggest weakness is their offense, and more specifically, Christian Yelich. After winning NL MVP in 2018, and finishing runner-up in 2019, Yelich has had the two worst seasons of his career in 2020 and 2021. Yelich dealt with a back injury for most of 2021, but the Brewers need Yelich to be healthy and back to his MVP ability in order to for them to score runs consistently, and win games.
The Cardinals are the only team that will challenge the Brewers for the division title. They won 90 games a year ago but lost the wildcard game to the Dodgers. They are strong defensive team anchored with of the best corner infield duos in the game with Arenado and Goldschmidt. They have a decent pitching staff led by Adam Wainwright and Jack Flaherty but don’t have as much depth as the Brewers. Should Flaherty miss significant time again due to injury, they could be in serious trouble.
The Reds, who were in the wildcard chase going into mid September last season, looked like they were in a good position to make additions this offseason and make the Central a competitive three team race. However, they have decided to strip payroll and trade some of their key players – much to the chagrin of not just their fans, but baseball fans in general. This decision has left many people confused and disappointed with the Reds ownership, especially coming off a 99-day lockout where the players’ biggest concern was teams not trying to be competitive every year. After being so close last season, a few big moves could’ve put them over the edge to be a playoff team, but now, they will finish under .500.
The Cubs and Pirates are rebuilding, and won’t be any threat to the Brewers or Cardinals for the division. The Cubs traded away most of their 2016 championship core at last season’s trade deadline, and while they did make a couple of nice additions in the offseason, they won’t finish above third in the division. The Pirates have some young players that could grow into superstars, but they are still a few years away.
East
Despite not re-signing the face of their franchise Freddie Freeman, the Braves should still be looked at as the team to beat in the East. The reigning World Series champions quickly pivoted from Freeman and traded for All-Star first baseman Matt Olson from the A’s and subsequently signed him to a 6-year, $168 million extension. They also signed top free agent closer Kenley Jansen and brought back NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario. They aren’t just looking at winning their fifth consecutive division title, but their looking at becoming the first repeat World Series champion in over 20 years.
The team that, on paper, should give the Braves a run for their money, is the New York Mets. They had a busy offseason and made a number of key additions, most notably signing 3-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer to a 3-year $130 million deal. The idea of having him pitch behind Jacob deGrom – who is the best pitcher in the sport – gives them the best one-two punch in game. However, deGrom is already going to miss at least a month due to an injury, and Max has been dealing with a possible hamstring injury. Hence why I said, “on paper”, because when you look at their roster, it should be a playoff team, but as we all know, the Mets always underachieve. They had high expectations last season, were in first place for over 100 days, and then had a historic collapse and finished with a losing record. So, until they prove that they can go out there and get the job done, it’s hard to be too confident in their abilities.
The Phillies will also be a competitive team as they hope to end their 10-year playoff drought. They battled the Braves down to the final weeks of the season for the division, but ultimately fell short. In the offseason, they signed two big sluggers in Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber to add to what should be a very potent lineup, but I’m not sure that will be enough. Everyone says that it’s pitching and defence that wins games, and I don’t think they have enough of either. They were the worst defensive team last year and have had an atrocious bullpen the last couple of seasons. Neither have gotten significantly better, and they will likely have to out-slug their opponents and possibly win a lot of 10-9 games.
The Marlins, while they do have some very good young pitchers, their offence leaves a lot to be desired. They should be a feisty team, but don’t expect them to compete for any playoff spots just yet. The Nationals are rebuilding, and while the do have arguably the best hitter in the game in Juan Soto, they don’t really have anything else. They will likely finish last in the division.
My Predictions
Despite each division having at least two non-competitive teams, there should still be competitive battles in each division. Plus, with the addition of the extra wildcard spot it should make for more compelling baseball down the stretch because it will likely keep a couple teams in the mix that might not otherwise have been.
I think the Braves will remain the champs of the East primarily due to their young core of stars, plus they have a winning culture. The Brewers will run away with the Central; the Cardinals will be competitive, but in the end pose no serious threat to the Brew Crew. The West may be a battle that goes down the wire again, but I think the Dodgers will recapture the crown atop their division. I think the three wildcard teams will be the Padres, Mets, and Giants. I think the Padres live up to their potential and while they won’t beat out the Dodgers for the division, they will win the first wildcard spot. Despite the injury to deGrom, and them being the Mets, I think they put together a winning season and capture a wildcard spot. The Giants won’t have the same magic they did last year, but they will still be a good club, and find a way to secure the final wildcard spot.