We are another day closer to opening day, and it’s time to give the rest of my predictions. I highlighted who I think makes the playoffs in National League, and now I will look at the American League. Unlike the NL, I think there are opportunities for new teams to make the postseason in the AL. The biggest difference between the two leagues is that there are less “super” teams in the AL and that could open the door for other teams to make the playoffs. It still has its two top teams (that I will get to), but there are a few new teams that could contest for wildcard spots and maybe division titles.
WEST
Let’s start with the reigning World Series champion Houston Astros. They have been the class of the American League for the last six years where they have won five division titles, four pennants, and two World Series. They are the best run organization in the AL and it’s hard to not pick them to win their division again. They have shown the ability to develop young talented players and when star players leave, replace them with the younger players and not miss a beat. They lost the reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander in free agency, but they still have one of the best rotations in the league. However, they do have a few players dealing with injuries that could result in the team having a slow start. Face of the franchise Jose Altuve will be out for a couple months as he recovers from a fractured right thumb. They will also be without left fielder Michael Brantley and starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. for most of April as they recover from shoulder surgery and a right arm muscle strain respectively. They should still win their division, but it may not be as easy as previous seasons largely due to the other teams in their division being better.
The Seattle Mariners are the team that is most likely to contest the Astros for the division title and they are primed to make another postseason appearance. After making the playoffs for the first time since 2001, and ending the longest playoff drought among all North American sports, they are in a good position to make it back to the dance. They traded for Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays to add some much-needed power in the middle of their lineup, and they also added second baseman Kolton Wong from the Brewers to sure up the middle-infield defence. They have great starting pitching led by ace Luis Castillo, and an electric bullpen with multiple players throwing close to 100mph. They are going to have another good year, but I need to see them seriously threaten the Astros for the division before I can pick them to win it. For now, I think they will win about 90 games and finish second again in the division behind the Astros.
Two other teams in the west should be better than last year, and while they likely won’t contend for the division, they could battle for a wildcard spot; those teams are the Rangers and Angels. The Rangers have spent over $800 million on free agents in the last two offseasons, and hired future Hall of Fame manager Bruce Bochy. You don’t bring in Bochy if you aren’t seriously looking at competing, and while they should be more competitive, I don’t expect them to finish much higher than .500.
The Angels could arguably be the team with the most pressure in baseball. They haven’t been to the playoffs since 2014, and they have the two best players in the game on their team. They are constantly criticized for not being competitive and are “wasting” Mike Trout’s career. Also, Shohei Ohtani is going to be a free agent after this season, and if they have any chance to re-sign him, they have to show him they can be competitive. They made some nice moves this offseason to improve and supplement the team on both sides of the ball, and they should have a better season. I would love for them to make the playoffs, but unfortunately I don’t see it happening. I think they can finish above .500, but still miss the playoffs.
CENTRAL
The Central is an interesting division because I believe there are three teams that could win it, and none of them look like a clear favourite. The Guardians won it last season after overtaking the Twins late in the year. Both teams made moves in the offseason to address areas of weakness for their respective clubs. The Guardians brought in Josh Bell and Mike Zunino to add some pop to the lineup, and the Twins traded for Pablo López to strengthen their rotation. The third team that should be in the mix is the White Sox. They were by far the most disappointing team last season as they were looked at as the division favourites but never really came close as they could never seem to get out of their own way. They have many talented players, but their biggest issue has been health. Most of their star players have spent significant time on the IL over the last couple of seasons, and if they want to have a serious chance at the division, they need be able to keep their players on the field.
Each team has their strengths and weaknesses, and I could any one of them winning the division. The Guardians have tremendous pitching both in the rotation and the bullpen. Their offense is decent, but they don’t have a lot of power and will have to string together multiple hits in order to score runs. The Twins have decent pitching and while López is a nice addition to the rotation, I still feel like they could use that true number one starter. Them re-signing Carlos Correa in the offseason was really important as he is a key player on their team. They have a good lineup, but they need Correa and Byron Buxton to remain healthy for a majority of the season. The White Sox may be the most talented team of the three on paper, but unfortunately for them, the games aren’t won on paper. They have a good rotation led by Cy Young award finalist Dylan Cease, and a deep lineup…when healthy. They need their star players to stay on the field for a majority of the season, and it already isn’t off to a good start. Third baseman Yoán Moncada and first baseman Andrew Vaughn are currently dealing with lower back issues and are listed as day-to-day. Hopefully they are ready for the start of the season, but for a team that has been plagued by injuries the last couple of years, this isn’t an encouraging sign. I think the Guardians will win the division again with around 91 wins, the Twins will come in second and claim a wildcard spot, and the White Sox will finish third and miss the playoffs again.
EAST
The AL East is the best division in baseball because every team has the potential to be very good. The Yankees are always good, the Rays are smart and feisty, the Orioles have a lot of good, young players, the Blue Jays are a lot better, and the Red Sox can be dangerous. Last year, the Yankees dominated and won the division, and the Rays, Blue Jays, and Orioles battled for wildcard spots. In the end, it was the Blue Jays and Rays who made the playoffs, and the O’s falling a few games short. I expect this season to be even more competitive amongst all five teams. While I don’t expect the Red Sox and Orioles to make the playoffs, I do think they will be in the mix for most of the season. The Orioles surprised baseball fans last year as their success came out of nowhere, and I think they can have another good season. They have a lot of young talented players and more on the way. They won’t catch anyone by surprise as people expect them to be competitive, but I don’t expect them to take that next step and win those few extra games need to make the playoffs.
The Red Sox are interesting because they could be better than people expect, or they could be a dumpster fire. The lost the face of their franchise Xander Bogaerts in free agency, and Trevor Story is likely out for the year as he recovers from elbow surgery. They made some good moves in offseason like signing Mastaka Yoshida, Justin Turner, and Kenley Jansen, but their roster still leaves a lot to be desired. Their offence should be okay, but their starting pitching is hinging on guys coming back from injuries. They are asking for bounce-back seasons from Chris Sale, James Paxton, and Corey Kluber, and while these would be a formidable trio in 2016, in 2023, maybe not. They need multiple things to break right for them to make the playoffs, and I don’t see it happening. I think they will finish last in the division yet again.
The Rays are always an enigma. They have a very small payroll, constantly turn over their roster, but always seem to find themselves competing for the postseason. Their strongest asset is their pitching, as they have one of the best overall pitching staffs in the AL. Their biggest weakness, however, has been their offence. They don’t hit for a lot of power or average, and they strikeout a lot. They rely heavily on their pitching and defense, and I think this year is the year it doesn’t all work out for them. I think they will have another good season, but fall a few games short of the third wildcard spot.
Last season the Yankees got off to a historic start and essentially won the division by July. They are going to be a very good team again, but I think there will be more of a battle between them and the Jays for the division this year. Early on, the Yankees are going to be without a few star players as they recover from injuries. Centrefielder Harrison Bader is out with a left oblique strain, and starting pitchers Luis Severino and Carlos Rodón are out with a right lat strain and left elbow strain respectively. These are important players that will start the season on the IL, and while the Yankees hope to get them back by the end of April, it could be longer. They have the pitching depth to cover the innings temporally until Rodón and Severino return, but having just signed Rodón to a massive 6-year $162 million contract, they need him on the field sooner rather than later. Now looking at their offense, it is still going to be feast or famine and while they will have games where they clobber their opponents, they will go through stretches where they can’t hit themselves out of a paper bag. Aaron Judge is obviously their best, and most important player, but they need guys like DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton to stay healthy and support Judge in the lineup. The are the probably the second best team in the AL, and the favourites to win the division, but it won’t be as easy as last year.
The biggest threat to the Yankees’ attempt to repeat at division champs are likely going to be the Blue Jays. After winning 92 games a year ago and claiming the first wildcard spot, the Jays have their eyes set on the division. They made a number of moves this offseason to help improve every facet of their game. They traded away sluggers Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., but acquired relief pitcher Erik Swanson and outfielder Daulton Varsho. They also signed Chris Bassitt to a 3-year contract to help stabilize their rotation as they hope for bounce-back seasons from José Berríos Yusei Kikuchi. Overall, the Jays have no glaring weaknesses, but also no overwhelming strengths.
The Yankees could start off slow due to the number of players they have on the IL, and this could allow the Jays to hang with them in the early parts of the season. It should be a competitive battle for the division all season long, but in the end, I do think the Yankees will edge out the Jays and win the division again. The Yankees will likely win close to 100 games again and the Jays will finish with around 94.
It is very possible that like the National League, the American League playoff teams are the same ones as last year. There are a couple shoo-ins that are almost certainly going to make the playoffs, but there are more teams in the AL that could play spoiler and force their way into a playoff spot. There are less World Series calibre teams in the AL than the NL, and that could make for some really exciting games and close playoff races during the season. Can the White Sox reach their full potential? Can the Jays finally win the division? Can the Angels make the playoffs? These are just a few things we are wondering going into the season, and we will see what the answers will be as the season unfolds.