The MLB season is about to begin, and that means it is time to look at each league and predict who will win each division and make the playoffs. Starting with the Senior Circuit, the National League is going to be very interesting this year. When you look at it, there’s a very strong possibility that the six teams that made the playoffs last year, are going to be the same six that make it this year. The exact placement of each team could vary, but it’s hard to really see any other teams making any significant noise to shake things up. The National League is almost divided up into two groups, the World Series hopefuls, and then everybody else. I will go through each division and who I think will make the playoffs, and while the teams may not surprise you, their placements might.
EAST
Let’s start in the East, and more specifically, the reigning National League champions, Philadelphia Phillies. They won 87 games last season and made the playoffs for the first time since 2011. The caught fire in the postseason and road that momentum all the way to the World Series, which is something not many people expected. They had a very busy offseason with making big moves to fortify their team with the expectation to challenge the Braves and Mets for the division. They made one of the biggest moves of the offseason by signing All-Star shortstop Trea Turner to an 11-year, $300 million contract. Turner is an MVP calibre player that can hit for average and will give the Phillies good defence and exceptional speed. This signing is also significant because they are going to be without former 2-time MVP Bryce Harper for the first half of the season as he recovers from elbow surgery. They are also going to be without first baseman Rhys Hoskins for the season as he tore his ACL during spring training. The Phillies are still a very talented team, but being without these two star players, and the fact they play in a tough division, it may be hard for them to win their first division title since 2011. I expect them to finish with around 90 wins, but still third in the East.
Now, onto the two aforementioned teams that will be competing with the Phillies for division title. The Braves and Mets battled all the season for the division title, and the Braves finally surpassed the Mets on final weekend of the season. Both teams won 101 games, but since Atlanta won the season series, they claimed the division title for the fifth straight season. Both teams had busy offseasons as they each lost notable franchise players, but were also able to replace them. The Braves lost All-Star shortstop Dansby Swanson to the Cubs, but acquired catcher Sean Murphy from the Athletics in a blockbuster 3-team trade. The Mets lost 2-time Cy Young award winner Jacob deGrom, but signed reigning AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander. The Braves are a young, talented team, and have shown over the last couple of years, that no matter how the season starts, they find a way to rise to occasion and win the division. They have a winning culture, and until someone knocks them off the pedestal, it’s their division to lose.
The Mets are also a very talented team, and they will be battling for the division until the very end again. About a month ago, they could’ve been the favourite to win it, but they have lost arguably their most important player for the season. All-Star closer Edwin Díaz is out for the year after suffering a patellar tendon tear in his right knee during a celebration in the World Baseball Classic. Díaz was unhittable last season, and his injury is a massive blow to the Mets as they now have to find another player or players to secure the final three outs of the game.
It is going to be a very competitive three-team race, and I expect each one of them to make the playoffs. 100 wins is very difficulty to do, and I don’t expect either the Braves or Mets to do it again, but I could see Atlanta winning around 98 games, and edging out the Mets to win the division again by one or two games.
CENTRAL
This is probably the least interesting division not just in the National League, but possibly in all of MLB. The reason for that is because there will almost certainly be only one playoff team coming from this division, and it will likely be the Cardinals. They went 93-69 last season and took the division away from the Brewers who collapsed in the second half of the season. While they did lose two franchise icons in Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols who both retired after the season, they are still led by reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt and gold glover Nolen Arenado who finished third in MVP voting last season. These two are the cornerstones of St. Louis’ offence, and they also signed All-Star catcher Willson Contreras to replace Molina and contribute offensively. The area of concern for the Cardinals is their starting pitching. They lost José Quintana in free agency, Adam Wainwright will be 42 in August and is starting the season on the IL, and guys like Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty have been prone to injuries. The good news for them, is that they really only have the Brewers to worry about when it comes to contenders for the division.
No disrespect to the Reds and Pirates, but they are both rebuilding and are coming anywhere close to the division. The Cubs had a busy offseason as they brought in Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Cody Bellinger among others, and while they should be better than last season, don’t expect them to challenge for the division or even a wildcard spot. The Brewers are the biggest threat to the Cardinals because they have the best pitching in that division; they have Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff leading the rotation and Devin Williams in the back of the bullpen. The biggest problem for the Brewer over the last few seasons has been their offence. The struggle to score runs and a large part of that is because their former MVP Christian Yelich has been a shell of what he once was. I expect the Brewers to be in the playoff hunt for most of the season, but when the dust settles, I predict they will win about 86 games again, and fall about 5-6 game back of the Cardinals.
WEST
The West is most likely going to be a two-team race, but it should be a fascinating race because of the dynamics of the two teams. The Dodgers are looking vulnerable, and the Padres are loaded with star players and are primed to take down their division rivals. Let’s start with the Dodgers. They have been the class of the division for the last decade and are coming off a franchise-best 111-win season. However, they are going to look much different this year than years passed due to many key players leaving via free agency. They still have two MVP calibre player in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, but they do have more uncertainty this year than in previous season. Shortstop Gavin Lux is out for the year after tearing his ACL in spring training, and with their middle infield already being somewhat a question, this just exacerbates the problem. Their starting pitching is also not as strong as years passed. Ace Walker Buehler is going to miss most of, if not the entire season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and Tyler Anderson – who was a big part of their rotation last year – signed with the Angels in the offseason. They still have Cy Young finalist Julio Urías and future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, but after that, it will be a lot of uncertainty and hope. Kershaw is also a bit of uncertainty as he is now 35 years old and has dealt with numerous back injuries over the last few seasons. They are going to be asking a lot out of Noah Syndergaard, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May, and while they are all serviceable starters, there would definitely be room for improvements. The Dodgers were uncharacteristically quiet this past offseason, and while it’s possible they are saving their money for Shohei Ohtani in next offseason, they still have to get through this season first.
The Padres on the other hand, spent more money this offseason than anyone would’ve expected. In probably the most shocking move of the offseason, they signed All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts to a 11-year, $280 million contract. He will be their everyday shortstop, and now this moves their former star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. to right field. Tatis missed all of last season due to a wrist injury and then a PED suspension. He’s going to miss most of April as he finishes his suspension, and he could be the most interesting player to watch this season as it’s unknown what type of player the Padres will be getting. He has shown to be an MVP level player, but he hasn’t played in over a year, and there will be a lot of pressure on him to perform. The Padres also have left fielder Juan Soto and closer Josh Hader for the entire year, both of whom they acquired at last years’ trade deadline. Let’s not forget about MVP finalist Manny Machado who they signed to an 11-year, $350 million extension, and at times last year carried the team on his back. Their lineup is loaded with stars and it going to give opposing pitchers nightmares. I also think their pitching, both in the rotation and in the bullpen, is better than the Dodgers. The have a set closer with Hader, and a strong top three in the rotation in Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell.
The Padres are doing everything they can to build a World Series team and they will seemingly throw money at anyone and everyone to accomplish that. After knocking out the Dodgers in the NLDS last year, I think the Padres can carry that momentum and confidence in this season, and win their first division title since 2006. It’s not going to be easy, and I can see it coming down to the end of the season, but I think the Padres win about 97-98 games, and the Dodger win about 95-96.
When the season is all said and done, I expect the same six teams from last year’s NL playoff picture to be in the postseason once again. Teams like the Cubs, Giants, and Diamondbacks should be better than last year, and I think they will be more enjoyable to watch, but I don’t think they are at that next level right now to seriously compete for a playoff spot. The NL should be filled some entertaining baseball games and exciting playoff races, and it will be interesting to see how it all shakes out in the end.