We are unofficially a third of the way through the major league season. The May long weekend is a good date to use as a benchmark to evaluate players and teams’ performances in the year so far. While there is still lots of baseball to be played, by this point teams are starting to figure out what they have and where they fall in the standings. The Jays are currently 23-22, fourth in the American League East and 4.5 games behind the division leading Red Sox and Rays. All things considered, the Jays are still in a pretty good spot. Of course, it would be better if they were higher in the standings, but with everything they have had to endure, it is quite impressive that they have the record that they do.
According to teamrankings.com, the Jays have had the hardest schedule so far out of any other team in baseball. Along with the multitude of injuries that they’ve suffered, plus the fact that George Springer has only played in four games, it is remarkable that they are where they are. Charlie Montoyo has done a very good job with the team this year; more specifically, his ability to manage a bullpen who seems to lose a pitcher every week to an injury. The Jays currently have eight pitchers on the injured list, four of which have been key pieces to the bullpen. The main concern with the bullpen is the number of innings that they pitch. They have been used often thus far in the season, for no other reason than the starting pitching – outside of Ryu and Ray – hasn’t been great. The Jays bullpen has pitched 184 innings so far, but they cannot rely on their bullpen every day because they are going to burn out quickly. We have seen some of that already appear within the last week.
The team’s biggest weakness is starting pitching. It was a problem heading into last offseason, it was a problem heading into the season, and it is still a problem now. If anything, it has become an even bigger problem than when the season began. Right now, the Jays only have three quality starters in Ryu, Ray, and Matz. The other two rotation spots have been filled by a number of different people, combined with several bullpen days as well. Ross Stripling has been in the rotation for most of the season, and Anthony Kay was slotted in the final spot before being optioned back down to triple-A Saturday afternoon. However, if the Jays have any serious plans to be contenders in the late summer, those two spots need to be improved upon. Stripling and Kay weren’t the Jays’ first choices to round out the rotation, but due to injuries and other poor performances, they have found themselves starting more regularly.Ideally, the Jays wanted to have Nate Pearson take hold of one of those spots, but the injury he suffered in Spring training set him back, and he hasn’t pitched well since returning. Pearson is currently in the minors with the triple-A team working on his craft and can hopefully show he is ready for the big leagues soon. The final spot was originally going to be for Tanner Roark or Thomas Hatch. However, Roark struggled mightily out of the gate, and was eventually released by the team, and Hatch is working his way back from an elbow injury. Hatch is also with the triple-A team on a rehab assignment, and if all goes well, he could join the team to make his season debut in mid June.
Even if Pearson and Hatch do find their way into the starting rotation in the next month or so, the team will still need to explore other options as the trade deadline gets closer. Alternatively, they could call up Alek Manoah, who is one of the team’s top pitching prospects. A few weeks ago, I didn’t think they would call him up this year, as this is his first year in triple-A and because he has little minor league pitching experience. However, if he continues to pitch well, he could force management’s hand into calling him up earlier than anticipated.
One of, if not the brightest spot of the Jays’ season so far, has been Vladimir Guerrero Junior. He has had a phenomenal start to the season. He is currently hitting .331/.444/.632. He also has an OPS of 1.076 which is one of the best in baseball, and he is tied for fourth in homeruns with 13. He is also hitting the ball harder than ever before. He hits baseballs at an average exit velocity of 94.9mph which puts him the top 1% of all players. He has been the team’s best player all year, and if he keeps this up, could be an MVP finalist.
One player who was expected to be one of the team’s best players is George Springer. Unfortunately, his season has been derailed by injuries. He started the season on the IL with a strained oblique, then injured his quad while rehabbing the oblique, came off the IL and played four games, and then reinjured the quad. There is no expected return date for Springer, but the Jays must be totally certain that he is at 100% when he returns. The offence has managed to sustain his absence, but there is no question that he makes the team better on both sides of the ball.
As previously mentioned, the Jays have had the toughest schedule to date, so that makes their record a little more impressive considering they have been shorthanded more often than not. This also means that their schedule going forward should not be as difficult as other teams. The Jays still have yet to play teams like the Orioles and the Tigers, who are two of the worst teams in the league. Couple that along with the possibility of getting some of their impact players back from the IL, they should be in a good position as the summer progresses.
We are just over 40 games into the season, so it is still early, but at the same time, not so early. It is around this time of the year and over the next month that teams will see what their rosters are made of, and if they will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. The Jays should be in a position to be buyers at the deadline, likely with starting pitching at the top of their list. So far, the Jays have managed to weather the injury storm and play quality baseball, but we will see how long it will last. They need better performances from their starting pitching, and they need their injured stars to recover as quickly as possible. We are about a third way through the season, and the Jays are 23-22. The next month and a half will be very crucial for the Jays in determining if they have any real hopes to make it into the post-season.