During spring training, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. said, “what we did last year was the trailer, now you’re going to see the movie.” Unfortunately, this movie hasn’t played out as well as everyone had hoped. Thus far, it’s been less Avatar, and more The Last Airbender. The Jays were the trendy team coming into the season and were many people’s picks to not just win the AL East, but possibly the pennant. Due to the Jays not playing their best, and the Yankees playing historically great baseball, the AL East race is essentially over. Now, the Jays need to battle the Red Sox, Rays, and other American League teams for the wildcard spots. Thanks to the addition of a third wildcard, the likelihood of the Jays securing a spot is greater this year than last, but still nothing is guaranteed. The Jays are in the mix for a wildcard spot, but with multiple teams within striking distance, and the Jays not playing their best baseball, should we be concerned as we head into the second half of the season?
The answer to that question is not very black and white, so let’s break it down into two other questions. Are there aspects of the Jays that are concerning? Yes – pitching being at the top of the list. Should they be concerned about not making the playoffs? No – at least not yet.
Similar to last season, the Jays’ biggest weakness is pitching. Ryu is out for the rest of the season after having Tommy John surgery, and Kikuchi and Berríos haven’t performed to the best of their abilities. Their bullpen is also once again an area of concern. While it wasn’t going to be the team’s strength coming into the season, very poor performances by guys expected to have big roles – like Merryweather and Richards – have left more holes than otherwise anticipated.
Bullpens are always very fluid, and it’s hard to predict who will have success and who will struggle. As the trade deadline nears, the Jays will likely add a couple arms to the pen, as they did last year. A bigger issue with the pen is that they have been asked to cover a lot of innings so far this season. A heavy workload could cause even the best relievers to get tired as the season winds down, which could lead to even more struggles in games that could decide a postseason birth or not. This is primarily due to the starting pitching not being able to consistently pitch deep into games, and the pen having to cover more innings than the Jays would like. The two biggest issues in the rotation have been Yusei Kikuchi and José Berríos.
The problems with Kikuchi and Berríos give cause for greater concern because of the money attached to them. Kikuchi is signed to a 3-year, $36 million deal and Berríos to a 7-year, $131 million deal. When each of these players signed, both looked like very good deals for both the players and club, however they aren’t off to great starts.
Kikuchi’s biggest problem has been his command as he can’t consistently find the strike zone. His walk percentage is up from last season and is one of the worst in the league. They have placed him on the injured list with “neck tightness” – but in reality, he likely isn’t really injured. By placing him on the IL, this gets him out of the rotation, giving him the opportunity to make some rehab starts in AAA, in the hopes that he can recapture his previous success.
Berríos on the other hand, has no problem finding the strike zone, but he’s been getting hit hard when he does. His velocity is similar to what it was last year, so it really comes down to location and execution. He has been leaving too many pitches out over the plate and hasn’t been able to put guys away with 2 strikes. He’s shown signs of brilliance with some excellent outings, but then will get lit up in 3 innings the next. Berríos has been so good and consistent for his entire career, so seeing him struggle as much as he has this year is extremely puzzling.
I wouldn’t say the offence is an area of concern, but it definitely hasn’t been as productive as it was last year. The obvious difference between last year and this season is the absence of Marcus Semien who hit a record-setting 45 homeruns as a second baseman and slashed .265/.334/.538. It was figured his contribution would be missed, but a full season of George Springer, along with more contributions from other players like Matt Chapman, was thought to be enough to cover it. The main issue with the offence is that the guys that were expected to lead the charge haven’t played as well as they did last year. Vladdy, Bo, and Teoscar are each underperforming compared to last year, and when your big bats aren’t playing to their levels, it’s hard to ask others to play above theirs.
Guys like Kirk, Gurriel, and Espinal at times have stepped up and helped carry the offence at times, but at the end of the day, you need your core hitters to consistently lead the offensive charge because when they go, the team goes.
We’ve said for most of the season that they’ll figure it out and get hot. However, we’re more than halfway through the season, and while the weather outside has heated up, the Jays as a whole, have not. In a likely attempt to shake things up, the Jays made the shocking decision to fire manager Charlie Montoyo after a horrendous road trip. It was reported that Montoyo might have lost the clubhouse, and if that were the case, then firing him was probably the right call. Bench coach John Schneider has taken over as interim manager for the remainder of the season, but it remains to be seen how much of a difference – if any – this managerial change will make.
The Jays are still very much in the thick of the playoff picture, but it’s starting to get crowded. If they have any hopes of making the postseason, they need to start playing better and more consistently on both sides of the ball. The heavy hitters need to get hot, and they need better pitching by both the bullpen and the rotation. Also, as we approach the August 2nd trade deadline, expect the front office to acquire players that’ll help the team down the stretch.
No one said the season was going to be easy, and even championship teams go through tough stretches during the season. What differentiates a winning team from any other is how they overcome their lowest points and find a way to persevere. So far, the movie hasn’t played out as well as the Jays and the fans would have hoped – but the Jays still have time to turn things around, before this movie’s end looks like the Titanic.