You will often hear the phrase “it’s early” at the start of the MLB season and this is usually in response to when a player or team is off to a poor start. This isn’t to imply that games in April or May are worth any less than the ones late in the season, but it’s essentially to say that there is still plenty of games left in the season and lots of things can happen. We’ve seen teams have great starts to the season only to collapse halfway through and miss the playoffs, and we’ve seen teams start terribly and end up winning the World Series.
The Jays have had a pretty good start to the season. They went 6-4 on their ten-game road trip to begin the year, and then 4-2 on their homestand which included ending the Tampa Bay Rays’ 13 game winning streak. They have shown flashes of their full potential as a team, but haven’t had it all click together for multiple games in a row. We’re only a couple of weeks into the season, so there is still ample of time for the team to get on a roll, but the sooner they can do so, the better.
Their biggest concerns have been in the rotation, more specifically with José Berríos. After a full offseason, spring training, and 101 adjustments, Berríos just can’t seem to recapture his previous All-Star calibre success. When the Jays signed him to a 7-year, $131 million extension after the 2021 season, it looked like an excellent signing. Berríos was coming off a great 2021 campaign, had shown to be one of the most durable and consistent pitchers in the American League, and looked to be entering the prime of his career. Unfortunately, he has been anything but since then. He has been durable as he didn’t miss a start in 2022, but he has been wildly inconsistent, and when he is bad, he is terrible; he can’t locate his pitches, and gives up a lot of hard contact. There was hope coming into this season that with some of the adjustments he had made, the results would be better, but unfortunately, they have not. He got rocked by the Kansas City Royals in his first start of the season, and couldn’t get out of the fifth inning against the Angels in his second start. To possibly the surprise of some fans, he did have a very good start against the Rays as he only allowed one run on four hits with six strikeouts. This was over five innings of work before leaving the game after taking a comebacker off his knee. Hopefully he can build off his last outing and be more consistent as the season progresses, because the Jays need him to be better if they want to seriously contend for the division.
Coming into the season, the Jays rotation was looked at as having two horses at the top in Manoah and Gausman, and two question marks at the back in Berríos and Kikuchi. Gausman has been excellent so far and we’ve already covered Berríos. Kikuchi has pitched better than last year (so far) and has shown more confidence and has given them what you basically expect from a fifth starter. Manoah has been the one that has struggled more than people would’ve thought and there could be more concern with him going forward than people would’ve anticipated.
In his first four starts, he was unable to complete five innings in three of them and has allowed 15 runs with 15 walks. For reference, over his first four starts last season, he only allowed 4 runs and walked only 7. He also pitched at least 6 innings in each of those starts. Manoah’s command has been his biggest issue as he has struggled to find the zone in most of his starts, especially with his slider. Last season, his slider generated a 31.8% whiff rate and a 27.7% strikeout percentage. This year, it has a 27.8% whiff rate and a 17.6% strikeout percentage. He has not been able to consistently throw the slider for strikes or even throw them well enough at times for them to look like strikes long enough to entice hitters to swing at them. A lot of times they have been “a ball out of the hand” which means the hitters can tell the pitch is going to be a ball as soon as Manoah throws it. This has led to less chases, more walks, and more runs allowed. It has only been four starts, and Manoah has had more success than not in his short career thus far, so there is no reason to think he won’t be able to figure this out and turn things around. He is only 25 years old and it’s not just early in the season, it’s still early in his career overall.
Offensively, the Jays have been one of the best in baseball. This is largely in part of the hot starts by Matt Chapman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette. While this trio has been red hot, there has been a trio of players that have unfortunately gotten off to slower starts. The trio of Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, and Whit Merrifield have spent most of the season thus far sharing playing time and have each played various positions on the diamond. As each of them plays second base, there will always be at least one of them in lineup every day, but none of them have gotten off to a hot enough start to get consistent playing time. Their positional versatility is valuable and while it gives the Jays different options when constructing their lineup, at a certain point, you have to let one of them be the everyday second baseman to allow them to get rolling.
It is hard for a hitter to get their timing right at the plate and put together good at bats on a nightly basis when they aren’t playing everyday. Of the three, Merrifield is probably the best hitter, and he should be the one that the Jays play everyday. He can play second, and each outfield position, so there should be no reason for him to not be in the lineup if he’s healthy. Espinal was an All-Star last season, but has struggled mightily so far this year, and he didn’t have a strong finish to last season either. He is an excellent defender and can play second, third, and shortstop, which is valuable in case Chapman or Bichette need a day off. Biggio is probably the player with the least offensive upside and while he can play second, and each corner outfield positions, his defensive isn’t strong enough to give him more playing time over the other two. He does hit left-handed, so the Jays might put him in the lineup over Espinal if they’re up against a tough right hander, but I still think Whit is the better option over either of them in any scenario.
We’re only a few weeks into the season and there is still over 80% of the season left to play. It is way to early for any drastic changes like cutting or demoting certain players based off a two-week sample size. For hitters, 100 plate appearances is a good barometer to start to really judge where they are at, and that’s usually after almost one month worth of games. The second base situation will sort itself out as the season progresses, but for now, don’t expect any of them to be traded or optioned to the minors anytime soon. Whit will probably get more playing time as he is performing better than the other two, but Espinal and Biggio will likely still get their fair share of at bats for the foreseeable future.
On the pitching side, you have to give it more than just a handful of starts before getting overly concerned and start looking for alternatives. There can be a little more concern with Berríos because he was bad last season, but due to his contract, there is nothing you can do about it other than having him pitch every fifth day and hope he figures it out. Manoah finished third in the Cy young voting last season so he has a more recent positive history to look back on and hope he can recapture, unlike Berríos. While Manoah could technically be optioned to minors, it would have to take a couple months worth of absolutely horrendous starts for the Jays to even consider that. Right now, both men will get their turns in the rotation and hopefully they can turn things around. The season is young so there is no reason to panic at the bad or overly praise the good. The Victoria Day long weekend is a good first checkpoint in the baseball season to get a gage on where every team sits in the league. Until then, lets hold off on the drastic overreactions because as you know, it’s still early.