September baseball can be almost as exciting as postseason baseball because of the number of teams battling for division titles and/or wildcard spots. In the American League, we are having one of the craziest races to the playoffs as there are four teams fighting for three spots. The Astros, Mariners, and Rangers are all battling for both the AL West title and wildcard spots. However, the two teams that don’t win the division aren’t each necessary guaranteed a wildcard spot because the Blue Jays are well in the thick of things. These four teams are separated by only a handful of games and not one has been able to distance themselves from the rest. The positioning of these four teams has changed so frequently over the first few weeks of September, it feels almost impossible to predict how it will all shake out.
As of September 1st, Seattle and Houston were tied atop the AL West with Texas only 1.0 game behind them, and this would leave Toronto 1.5 games behind Texas for the final wildcard spot and therefore out of the playoffs. Thankfully for the Jays, they were in the midst of the easiest part of the schedule as they were playing the worst teams in baseball. This allowed them to not just hang with the AL West teams, but also surpass two of them in the standings. After going 7-2 against the dregs of the game, they were able pass the Mariners and Rangers and take hold the second wildcard spot and be 1.0 game above Seattle, and 1.5 above Texas who was now on the outside looking in. The Rangers who had been leading their division for a majority of the season, were playing some of their worst baseball and looked like they were in a freefall. With their offence cooling, and their pitching in shambles, they let the Astros and Mariners back into the race, and even allowed the Jays to pass them.
However, things would drastically change when the Rangers arrived in Toronto for a big four-game series against the Jays. The Rangers not only swept the Jays, they obliterated them. The series was not close at anytime as Texas seemed to hit every pitcher the Jays threw out at them, and the Jays couldn’t muster any offense whatsoever. Now, the Rangers took hold of the second wildcard spot and had a 1.5 game lead over the Mariners and the Jays found themselves out of the playoffs as they were 1.5 games behind Seattle. The worst part for the Jays is that they do not hold the tiebreaker over either the Rangers or Mariners, so that means if they finish tied with either for the third wildcard spot, they will not make the playoffs; so, they must finish ahead of them to get in.
When the Jays’ season looked to be at its lowest point, and there was no hope in site, things would once again drastically change in just three days. The Jays swept the Boston Red Sox over the weekend and while those were much needed victories, they also got some help from other teams. The Cleveland Guardians swept the Rangers, the L.A. Dodgers swept the Mariners, and the Kansas City Royal won 2/3 against the Astros. The odds of all those things happening were 1 in 341 or 0.293% and was exactly what the Jays needed.
This just reinforces the fact that until you are mathematically eliminated, you are still in it, as anything could happen. These next few weeks are not going to be easy for any of these teams, and there could be a lot more flip-flopping in the standings between now and the end of the season. The Jays only play the Rays and Yankees the rest of the way, and they struggled against these teams when the played them earlier in the season. The one thing that could help the Jays is that the Mariners and Rangers will play each other seven times. This means that one of them will lose at least four times and the Jays could separate themselves from at least one of them.
The Jays still need to play good baseball the rest of the way. The pitching has been the strength of this team the entire season, and they need them to finish strong. The offence has surprisingly been the weakest aspect of the team’s game and they need to be able to come up with some big hits down the stretch. Vladdy appears to be getting into a rhythm as he has recently homered in three straight games, and if he can get rolling, that will be a big boost to the offense. While they didn’t score a lot of runs against the Red Sox this past weekend, they did get contributions by different players, and that is what you need. The stars need to be great, but the supporting cast need to assist when their number is called.
It has been a crazy, stressful, intense, and wild couple of weeks for each of the teams in the AL wildcard race, and the next couple should be no different. Given the constant changes we have seen in the standings, it almost feels impossible to definitively say which teams will make the playoffs. No one knows how it will all play out, and it is very plausible that nothing gets sorted until the last day of the season. However, one thing we do know, is that it should be an exciting, and wild ride.