There is no positive way to put this, things are not going well for the Blue Jays. After a decent start to the season, they have played very poorly over the last couple weeks, and are digging themselves a deep whole in the standings. They have lost five of their last six series, and have lost in a multitude of ways. Their offence is lacking, the starting pitching has been spotty, and the bullpen has been bad.
Coming into the season, it was known that the offence could be the weak point of the team, but it’s been worse than most would’ve thought. Last season, they were a decent hitting team that struggled to hit with RISP, but this season, they are struggling to hit altogether. At the time this is written, they are 11th in average, 7th in OBP, 14th in SLG, and 14th in homeruns amongst American League teams. They have been a terrible offensive team, and you aren’t going to win many games, let alone compete for a playoff spot, with numbers like this.
It isn’t like the Jays don’t have a good team, because they do. It’s just that a lot of their key guys have underperformed, especially in the lineup. Championship caliber teams have players that are referred to “aircraft carriers”; these are superstar players that can carry their team for an extended period of time. The Jays’ “aircraft carriers” are expected to be the top three guys in the lineup: Springer, Bichette, and Guerrero Jr. However, they have all underperformed up to this point.
Vladdy has been hitting much better as of late, but his numbers are still not where he, and a lot of people expect him to be. He is still hitting the ball extremely hard, but a lot of times it’s into the ground. The funny thing is, his ground ball percentage is only 3% higher this year than it was in 2021 when he finished second in the AL MVP voting. The problem with Vlad is that as a player that is expected to carry the team, he needs to come through in big spots to drive in runs, and that hasn’t happened. He’s hitting only .195 with RISP, and when your superstar player isn’t driving in runs, it’s hard for others to consistently pick up the slack. He has been much better lately, and had a great game Saturday against the Twins, now let’s hope he can continue this and start hitting for more power as well.
Turning to the other half of “the core” in Bo Bichette, he has also been struggling mightily so far. Bo has been hitting around or under .200 for most of the season, and for a guy that has led the AL in hits in 2 of the last 3 seasons, this is very uncharacteristic like. I think it’s only a matter of time before he comes around, but the Blue Jays need him to do it sooner rather than later.
Last but certainly not least is George Springer. He is not having a good year, no matter what numbers you look at; he’s hitting .206/.280/.298. Those are not numbers you want from a guy earning $25 million a year and hitting at the top of your lineup. To make matters worse, his average with men on base is .125, and that is something that the Jays cannot afford to have continue. Springer had led off for most of his career, but it may be time the Jays consider moving him down in the order. At the end of the day, I’m not sure it matters where they put him, because whether he’s first or sixth, if he doesn’t come through it big spots, it makes no difference.
Another area of concern lately has been the bullpen. Something that was expected to be a strength coming into the season, has quickly turned into weakness. They are currently 30th in ERA at 5.15, 24th in strikeout to walk ratio at 2.07, and tied for 30th in homeruns allowed at 23. They are not striking guys out and allowing too many homeruns. This wouldn’t be good for any team, but given the fact the Jays play a lot of close games since the offence isn’t scoring a lot, the room for error is minimal. So, if they are giving up homeruns, they are likely giving up a lead. A big part of this has been because of the struggles of Tim Mayza and Erik Swanson. Two guys that were excellent last year and were expected to be big parts of the pen this year, have not been able to replicate the same success. Mayza has had moments of success, but has not been consistent, and Swanson has struggled since he came off the IL. If these guys can get back on track, it will help lengthen out the bull pen.
The starting pitching has been alright so far. They haven’t been as dominant as year, but that was going to be tough ask from the start. They are currently 11th in ERA in the AL with 4.23, but I think they will be fine in the long run. Berríos and Kikuchi have been very good so far and Bassitt and Gausman have been up and down. They are all veteran starters, so I’m not too concerned about them because I think they will be able to figure out what it takes to get back on track. A wildcard is Alek Manoah who is coming off a horrendous 2023 season. He pitched very well Sunday afternoon against the Twins, so if he can give the Jays quality outings, the starting rotation is going to look a lot better.
All hope is not lost for the Jays yet, but they need to start playing better soon if they are serious about contending for the postseason. Thankfully, with the addition of the third wildcard spot, they aren’t totally out of the playoff hunt just yet. However, there are a lot more good teams in the American League this year, so the Jays are going to have their work cut out for them to get back into the postseason picture. The Jays are a talented team and have the tools to be a serious playoff contender; however, for some reason, they have struggled to put it all together over the last couple of seasons. If things continue to go the wrong way for the Jays, they could be looking at some very tough decisions come trade deadline, and that is the last thing anyone wants to consider.