There has been a lot of discourse recently regarding Blue Jays’ superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his future with the team. He is only under control for one more year before becoming a free agent after next season, and the Jays need to figure out if he is part of the team’s future beyond 2025. There is no question that the best move is to sign him to a long-term extension and make sure he is a Blue Jay for his entire career, however, the Jays are running out of time. The Jays and Guerrero have been in talks about an extension, but are apparently still far apart on the numbers. Vladdy recently said in an interview that he does not want to negotiate once spring training begins in February, so that means the Jays only have a little over a month to work out an extension. Now, if the Blue Jays are serious about signing Vladdy to an extension, what would it take to get Guerrero to remain a Blue Jay for the foreseeable future?
Guerrero is going to be 26 in March, so that means when he enters free agency a year from now, teams will be buying him for his age 27 season and beyond. This is important for a couple of reasons. One, he is still in his prime and should have many strong years ahead of him, and two, it allows him to get a very long contract which will only cause the total dollar figure to increase.
Let’s compare him to Juan Soto, who just signed the largest contract in sports history at 15-years for $765 million with the New York Mets. Soto entered free agency a year younger than Vladdy will, but it is reasonable to think that Guerrero will look for a 12 to 15-year deal as well. Furthermore, Vladdy is not as strong a hitter as Soto, so the dollar figure likely won’t be as gargantuan. However, Guerrero’s price only increased since Soto’s signing, and Vladdy has suggested he is aiming for a deal that is over $500 million.
MLB Trade Rumors projects Vladdy to earn $29.5 million in arbitration for 2025, which would be an increase of about $10 million from his 2024 earnings of $19 million. If we round up and say Vladdy earns $30 million next year, and use that as the average annual value (AAV) over the next 15 years, his contract would be worth $450 million. This could be the starting point for a possible extension.
If Vladdy wants $500 million, then depending on the length of the deal, you are looking at an AAV of around $33-$38 million. Given his age, he will most likely get a deal that is 13-15 years in length, which will only increase the likelihood of getting the number he wants. Let’s use 15 years as a bench mark to remain consistent with Soto, whom Vlad will almost certainly be referencing when negotiating his contract. I think $35-$40 million will be the AAV range that Vladdy would get, which means, over 15 years, you are looking at a contract worth somewhere between $525-$600 million.
While some may question whether Vladdy is really worth that amount, a helpful way to calculate a player’s dollar value is by looking at their Wins Above Replacement (WAR). This statistic measures how many more wins a player gives a team over an average player. Typically, 1 WAR equals approximately $8 million. Last year, Vladdy put up 6.2 WAR, and so if you give him $8 million/win, you get $49.6 million. The $40 million per year isn’t looking too bad right now, is it?
Plus, if the Jays want to sign Vladdy before he hits free agency, they are likely going to have to pay more than market value, because there is no reason for him to sign for anything less when he’s this close to free agency. In the same interview referenced earlier, Vladdy also said the team offered him a $340 million extension earlier this offseason. While that is definitely a lot lower than what he wants, depending on the length of the deal that was offered, it may not be an egregious starting point. For instance, if that’s over 10 years, that’s a $34 million AAV. If the Jays offered this to Vlad a few years ago, it may have gotten it done, but now, it will likely take a couple hundred million dollars more.
These kinds of negotiations take time and a lot of back-and-forth; however, time is not something the Jays have in their favour. If Vladdy reaches free agency, it doesn’t mean for certain that the Jays won’t be able to re-sign him, it just becomes increasingly more difficult because they will have to compete with teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets, all of whom have as much money, if not more, than the Blue Jays and enough desire to pry Vladdy away from Toronto. Extending Vladdy would bring joy to an otherwise disgruntled fanbase and would be a step in the right direction towards building the Blue Jays into a World Series contender. However, if the team fails to get this done, losing their star player could set the Blue Jays back years, and would be the biggest failure of this front office, if not the franchise as a whole.