American League 2021 Season Predictions

Now time to look at the American League. The American League as a whole isn’t as competitive as the National League. It isn’t very top heavy aside from the Yankees, so it will be interesting to see how everything plays out especially for the two wildcard spots. Some teams have come back to the pack a little bit, and some teams are looking to take that next step to be serious contenders.

AL WEST

This is an interesting division because the recent juggernauts in the Astros and Athletics have lost some key pieces which can make them vulnerable, but none of the other teams have done anything to drastically improve their teams. The Astros have won the division in three of the last four years, and the A’s won it in 2020 and have been runner-up in the previous three. However, the Astros lost George Springer to the Jays via free agency and Verlander is out for the year recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Astros still have a pretty good lineup even without Springer, and their young pitching isn’t too bad as they showed in the playoffs last year. They are still the favourites to win the division, but it isn’t by as wide of a margin as in previous years.

The A’s are a…weird team. They never look like serious contenders, but then you look at the standings at the end of the year, and they’ve won 90 games. While they did win the division last year, they did get ambushed by the Astros in the ALDS and lost in 4 games. The A’s also lost some key players in Marcus Semien and All-Star closer Liam Hendriks via free agency. They did bring in some players to replace the ones they lost like closer Trevor Rosenthal and shortstop Elvis Andrus, but it will remain to be seen if they can perform to similar levels of their predecessors.

The Angels are the team that lots of baseball fans want to see do well for no other reason than for Mike Trout to get back to the playoffs. It has been a travesty that the best player in baseball has only been to the playoffs once; it was back in 2014, and the got swept in the ALDS. The Angels have failed to successfully build around Trout and their biggest issue has been their starting pitching. They haven’t had that number one starter that all playoff teams need. They bring in guys here and there to help out, but never that ace calibre pitcher. They brought in pitchers Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb this offseason, but it’s hard to imagine that will be enough. If Shohei Otani can stay healthy, and be the top of the rotation that they expected him to be, that would help immensely. The issue is that since he signed with them in 2018, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy.

The Mariners and Rangers are the two other teams that round out the division and neither of them are going to be competing for any playoff spots this year. The Mariners are still in their rebuilding process. Slowly their young players are emerging – like Kyle Lewis who won AL Rookie of the Year in 2020 – but they still have a few years to go. The Rangers on the other hand, are not a good team and don’t appear to have any sort of direction. They traded some players, but haven’t gone full fledge tear down, and will probably end up being of the worst teams in the league.

My Prediction: As much I want to say the Angels will win the division and Mike Trout will finally get back to the playoffs, I don’t see it happening. I expect the Astros to have a much better season this year, and for them to win the division again. Vegas currently has the A’s and Astros with 87.5 and 86.5 wins respectively, and both of those are respectable figures. I just think the Astros will finish with one or two more wins, and the A’s one or two less and miss the playoffs.

AL CENTRAL

The AL Central, unlike its National League counterpart, does have a couple really good teams. The division title will likely come down to the Twins, who have won it the last two seasons, and the White Sox, whose young stars are emerging and look to be serious contenders. This two-team race isn’t as exciting as the Dodgers/Padres battle in the NL West, but it should be a battle for most of the season. The Twins are the defending division champs, and should be a very good team again this year. Similar to the Brewers, the Twins don’t have any glaring weaknesses, but also no overwhelming strengths. Their lineup is quite good, but they need their stars like Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton to remain healthy for a majority of the year. Both their starting and relief pitching are respectable as well, and they should keep the team in most games.

The White Sox crumbled at the end of the 2020 season by losing 8 of their last 10 games – which cost them the division title – then lost 2 out of 3 games to the A’s in the wildcard round of the playoff after they won Game 1. However, after the acquisition of veteran starter Lance Lynn, All-Star closer Liam Hendriks, and Hall of Fame manager Tony La Russa, the White Sox are positioned as the favourite to win the division and are looked at by some as the second best team in the league. The Sox are an exciting team to watch. They have a good lineup with the 2020 AL MVP José Abreu right in the middle of it. They have a good rotation led by Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel and the aforementioned Lance Lynn. They have a decent bull pen with one of the best closers in the game in Liam Hendriks at the back end. Overall, they should be a very good team and give the Twins a run for their money.

The Indians are likely going to be a .500 team, and Vegas has their win total at 81.5, which is more than fair. They traded their star shortstop Lindor to the Mets this winter, and don’t have a lot of offence other than previous MVP candidate José Ramírez. Their only strength and ability to keep them in games is their starting pitching, but that will only carry them so far. The Royals and Tigers are two teams that are still rebuilding. Neither team is horrendous in such that they will lose over 100 games, but neither will win more than 72 games.

My Prediction: I expect the White Sox to win the division. Their young lineup can really hit, and I think their pitching is good enough to get them through the season. Their pitching is at least about equal to the Twins’ pitching. Vegas currently has the Sox’s win total at 91.5 and the Twins at 88.5. Those are actually tough to bet on, but I would take the under for both. I think the Sox finish at maybe 89-91 wins and the Twins around 87-88. I think the Twins will claim the first wildcard spot though.  

AL EAST

As mentioned in the article Beasts of the East, the Yankees are the favourites to win the division, but the Rays and Blue Jays plan to be very competitive as well. Quickly going to the bottom of the division, the Orioles are likely in for another tough season. They are rebuilding, but aren’t as further along as some other rebuilding AL teams like the Mariners and Royals. The O’s could very likely lose 100 games, or close to it. You could say the Red Sox are in a retooling phase as they have lost key players from their 2018 World Championship team, but they do still have some good players as well. They won’t be challenging for the division at any point this year, but they should finish at around .500.

The Blue Jays are an exciting team going into this season. They have a talented young core, and they made some big moves in the offseason by signing George Springer and Marcus Semien. While their lineup looks to be able to stack up with some of the best in the league, their starting pitching is a big issue. They have their ace in Hyun Jin Ryu leading the charge, but after that, it gets a bit shaky. They are hoping that top prospect Nate Pearson returns from his groin injury as soon as possible, and pitches like the high-end pitcher many expect him to be. The season ending injury to closer Kirby Yates hurts their bullpen a little, but they have enough depth to cover that.

The current defending AL Champion Rays will likely take a step back this season. The subtractions of Blake Snell and Charlie Morton to their rotation are pretty substantial. Also, their strategy of always going to the bullpen early on in games may have worked in a short 60-game season, but with the marathon that is 162, that will not work as guys are going get burnt out very quickly and early in the season. They still have Tyler Glasnow leading the rotation and they brought back former Ray’s pitcher, Chris Archer in the hopes he will find his previous success. They also have good players in their lineup, a strong bullpen and they will find a way to win ballgames.

The Yankees are the class of the division. They have the best lineup in the league, and their rotation has the potential to be one of the best in baseball. Their bullpen isn’t as dominant as it was a few years ago, but it is still respectable. The Yankee’s biggest issue will be keeping their star players on the field. Over the last couple of seasons, they have been plagued with the injury bug to their most important players, and they are hoping that ends this year. They are already going to be without the 2020 homerun leader Luke Voit for at least 2-3 months as he has surgery for a partial meniscus tear. When healthy, the Bronx Bombers are the best team in the league by far, but if some of their star players continue to go with injuries, they may be limping into October.

My Prediction: I expect the Yankees to win the division. Vegas has their win total at 95.5, and I will take the over. Even if the Yankees are healthy for some parts of the season, they have enough depth to make up for it. The Rays and Jays are tricky to evaluate. The Rays are like the island of misfit toys; they just plug and play players you’ve never heard of and they end up winning close to 90 games. As for the Jays, while they do have an exciting lineup, their starting pitching is worrisome. If at any point Ryu goes on the IL with an injury, they are in big trouble. Vegas has the Jays and Rays at 86.5 and 85.5 wins respectively, and I think the Rays will finish with 86-87 wins and the Jays fall just short with 85-86 wins. Unfortunately, I do think the Jays will fall short of the second wildcard spot and that honour will go the Rays.

While the American League doesn’t have as many good teams as the National League, there are some things to look out for this year. The White Sox and Twins should be battling for the Central division title for most of the year, the Jays will hope to show the Yankees that they are a serious contender and Mike Trout looks to finally return to the playoffs. While the Yankees are the only real certainty to make the playoffs, it will be interesting to see where the chips fall for the rest of the league. There is a lot of unknown in the AL and it will be interesting to see who’s in and who’s out come October.