Opening day is a few days away and for the most part, the Jays’ roster is pretty much set. So, what can we expect from the 2024 Blue Jays? The Player Empirical Comparison Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA), a system used to project how players and teams will perform, has projected the Jays to win 88 games. At the time this is written, PECOTA has them finishing second in the AL East behind the Yankees, and finishing with the fourth-best record in the American League which would secure them the top wildcard spot. Obviously, anything can happen during the regular season, but projections are fun to look at in order to have an idea of what to expect. PECOTA isn’t perfect and some of their estimates can leave you scratching your head, but they tend to be more accurate than not.
88 wins would have the Jays finishing a game worse than they did last season, but still in the playoffs (based on the current projections). However, would that be considered a successful season for the Jays? Fan morale is the lowest it’s been in years due to two reasons: the lack of postseason success and the quiet offseason they had.
The Blue Jays are 0-6 in the postseason in the Vlad & Bo era, and given how last season ended, fans were hoping for some major changes. The team seriously tried to sign free agent superstar Shohei Ohtani and were one of the finalists for him before he ultimately signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Turning to the next tier of free agents brings you to Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and J.D Martinez. There was a case for each of them to be good fits for the Jays, however, Cody signed with the Cubs, Matt to the Giants, and J.D to the Mets. The Jays did make some moves though. They brought back Gold Glove winner Kevin Kiermaier, and signed free agents Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Justin Turner, and Yariel Rodríguez. These are all solid moves, but none of them look to drastically move the needle. For comparison, the Yankees traded for one of the best hitters in the sport in Juan Soto, and the Orioles traded for one of the best starting pitchers in the sport in Corbin Burnes. For a team that finished third in its division with 89 wins a year ago, and now seeing two of their biggest rivals get better, it’s hard to see how the Jays can close the gap between them and their division opponents.
Don’t get me wrong, the Jays are still a very good team and should be in the hunt for a playoff spot for the entire season, but what needs to happen for them to have a good season? Health is first and foremost. They were one of the healthiest teams last season, especially in the starting rotation. They only used 8 different starting pitchers over the course of the season, which was tied for the lowest in the league alongside the Washington Nationals. This team is built on pitching and defense, so they are going to need another extremely healthy season from their rotation. This could be a lot to ask, as we are already seeing signs of concern, as Kevin Gausman has been dealing with shoulder fatigue this spring. The Jays are also dealing with injury concerns in the bullpen too, as Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson are dealing with elbow inflammation and forearm tightness, respectively.
The offense was the biggest issue for the team last year, and it was their inability to hit with runners in scoring position that ultimately undid them in the playoffs. They also didn’t hit for a lot of power, as they were 8th in both homeruns and slugging among AL teams. The addition of Justin Turner should help with their ability to score and he will most likely be the cleanup hitter whenever he is in the lineup. While he isn’t going to hit 40 homers, he does know how to drive in runs. Last season, Turner hit .338 with RISP and for comparison, Matt Chapman, who got the most at-bats as the Jays’ cleanup hitter last year only hit .215 with RISP.
The Jays could have used another impactful signing to help bolster their offense, but they are seemingly content with what they have and are hoping for bounce-back seasons from a few of their key players in the lineup. Ross Atkins seems confident that the team will have a better offensive season this year, describing last year as “just a blip”. While that is a risky gamble to take, there is reason to believe that could have been the case.
It wasn’t so much that the Jays were a bad offensive team last year, it was more so that they weren’t hitting for a lot of power, or in the clutch. Amongst AL teams, the Jays were 5th in average, 4th in OBP, and 5th in wRC+, all of which were higher than the Orioles who won 101 games. The biggest disparity between the two teams was with runners in scoring position. The Orioles hit .287/.357/.481 with RISP, which were all firsts in the AL. The Jays on the other hand hit .260/.340/.390, which ranked 6th, 6th, and 8th in the AL. The largest difference was the slugging as there was almost a 100-point difference between the two teams, which is kind of crazy when you think about it. The Jays would often be able to get guys on base and in scoring position, but always struggled to get the big hit to drive them in; whereas the Orioles, on the other hand, did a tremendous job at cashing guys in. The Jays were also 12th in the AL in homeruns with RISP where the Orioles were 3rd – again, showing the difference between the two teams when it came to scoring.
Could all of this be chalked up to bad luck? Possibly. Just based on the law of averages, the Jays shouldn’t be that bad again, and the Orioles shouldn’t be that good. However, I do think that the addition of Justin Turner will be huge because, as mentioned earlier, he does have a knack for driving in runs. Turner won’t be able to do everything on his own though, and will need help from some other key guys. Kirk, Springer, Varsho, and Vladdy all had seasons that were not up to their capabilities, and I believe that banking on better seasons for these four is what Atkins is hoping for.
Is asking for better seasons from four of the nine guys in your lineup a lot? Maybe. But at the same time, it isn’t like Ross is hoping for Cavan Biggio to hit 40 homers this year, when he hasn’t hit more than 10 in the last four seasons. The four aforementioned players have all had better seasons than what they put up last year, so we know the talent is there, it’s just now about playing to it. They don’t all have to be All-Stars or MVP candidates, but they need to have better, and more consistent, seasons if the Jays want to be serious contenders in the AL.
The Jays are still a good team. Are they a great team? It may not look like it now, but baseball is a funny sport, and things can change rather quickly. It is very hard to predict how the Jays will perform this season. Their pitching and defense are good enough to keep them in every game and will likely take them as far as they can go. The offense needs to be better, and there are reasons to believe it will be. Who knows what to expect this season, as anything could happen – let’s just hope for some good things happening to the Toronto Blue Jays.