The Ohtani sweepstakes are running wild and rightfully so. Shohei Ohtani is the best and most intriguing player to ever hit the free agent market and the price to acquire him could be unheard of. Now, are Blue Jays be serious contenders in the Ohtani sweepstakes? The two-way phenom will likely command a contract of over $500 million and only a handful of teams can actually be in a position to give that out, and yes, the Blue Jays are one of them.
Every team should be in the market for Ohtani since he is arguably the best player on the planet and would make any team better, but when you look at the player he is, he would actually be the perfect fit for the Jays. The Jays have lacked an impactful left-handed hitter for some time now, and this year they were missing power in the middle of their lineup; Ohtani provides both. In 135 games this past season, he hit .304/.412/.654 with an OPS of 1.066 and 44 homeruns. He was also in the top 1% in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage as well. There’s no question that he would have been the Jays’ best hitter, and he checks all the boxes on what the Jays were missing.
If that wasn’t enough, he is also a front of the rotation starter. However, this is where things can get a little uncertain with him. He underwent what was essentially his second Tommy John surgery at the end of the season, meaning he will not pitch at all next year. He is expected to return to the mound in 2025, but after a second serious surgery, it’s hard to know how effective he will be, and for how many years thereafter. When he’s on the mound he’s one of the best in baseball, but the concern is how long will he be able to do it. Doing both pitching and hitting can take a large toll on the body, and it is understandable if GMs are thinking cautiously about the size of the contract to give him, just in case his isn’t able to pitch at a high level for most of the contract.
While the surgery is something to keep in mind, it isn’t going to deter teams, like the Jays, that are interested in his services. He is still going to command a pretty penny and the Jays are one team that should be able to afford it.
However, signing Ohtani isn’t as easy as some fans may think it is. Just because you’re a large market team like the Yankees, Dodgers, Jays, Mets, Red Sox, etc. doesn’t mean you can just throw out over $500 million to player so easily, even if he is the best player in the world. Players are investments, and while teams want to sign the best players to make themselves better, they also need to consider what that player can bring to the team in terms of monetary value. This can come in the form of jersey sales, advertising, ticket sales, etc. Each of these are different for each team, because the Dodgers for example, sell out nearly every home game, so signing Ohtani won’t help increase their attendance if they are already sold out. The Jays didn’t have poor attendance this season, but they also didn’t sell out every home game, so an argunment could be made that signing Ohtani could help boost ticket sales. The questions then become, by how much, and would it be enough to justify the investment?
The possible marketing opportunities that he could bring to an organization is something that gets talked about a lot, but similar to attendance, isn’t as black and white as some may think. If a team isn’t having difficulty selling advertising to companies, would Ohtani make much of a difference? The Jays have had guys like Springer, Vladdy, and Romano featured in popular commercials over the last couple of years, so how much more could they make in advertising from signing Ohtani? Signing him could bring in more advertising from Japanese companies, but at the end of the day, you would basically just be switching out one company for another.
Understandably, fans don’t want to hear the business side of it, or reasons why a team won’t sign Ohtani, but it is a real thing that front offices consider when making large signings, especially one of this magnitude. Teams are going to do a cost benefit analysis and see how much money they can make off him and if handing him over half a billion dollars makes sense financially. Fans only want what’s best for their favourite team and they want front offices to do whatever possible to acquire the best players. Some teams may feel less pressure from their fans to make big moves in the offseason depending on the team’s situation, but the Jays are not one of them.
After a disappointing season, the Jays may almost feel desperate for a big move to excite the fanbase once again and show that they are committed to winning. They have made big moves in each of the last four offseasons, and have shown a willingness to spend and bring in big time free agents, but signing Ohtani is a whole other level. Rumours are running wild on social media with speculation on which teams are in on the Ohtani sweepstakes and who aren’t. The Dodgers are still the favourite to sign him, but the Jays may not be as much of a “dark horse” as some people may think. The interest in him is very real, and it isn’t just “kicking tires” type of interest. They will do as much as they can to try to sign him, and very well could make him a seriously competitive offer.
With the Winter Meeting being next week, I think it is very likely that Ohtani makes his decision and signs with a team by the end of the meetings. When it’s all said I done, I do expect him to sign with the Dodgers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if reports come out later on stating that the Jays were one of the finalists. Obviously, there are no prizes for coming in second on a free agent, but if the Jays make him a competitive offer, and he just doesn’t want to come to the Jays, there isn’t much more that the Jays could have done. No one really know what Ohtani is looking for, or what his ideal preferences are, but him signing with the Blue Jays would be a monumental moment in franchise history, and would bring much needed excitement back to Toronto.