Baseball is back! Spring training is underway, players are in the best shape of their lives, and games are now being played. For the Blue Jays, it has been a relatively quiet offseason, and as we get closer to opening day, fans continue to wonder if the Jays are done making moves. With how last season played out from start to finish, fans’ perspective and excitement surrounding the team is low, so there was speculation that the front office needed to make an offseason splash to rejuvenate the fans. Thus far, no splash has been made, and fans are starting to grow frustrated with the team. This now begs the question, is this a make it or break it season for the Jays and front office?
Some fans have been displeased with Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro from the moment they took over after the 2015 season, and those fans continue to have their pitchforks ready. However, I think patience is wearing thin for a lot of other fans now given the lack of playoff success this team has had. Despite assembling a very good baseball team, it has not led to any playoff victories. While the playoffs can be a bit of a crapshoot, being 0-6 in the postseason in the Bo and Vlad era is nothing short of disappointing.
2023 was a weird year for the Jays because while they did win 89 games and make the playoffs, they weren’t really a fun watch. That may sound odd to say about a team that made the playoffs, but it was true. This isn’t a knock on the players, because they have some fun and exciting players on the team, but the team’s strength was pitching, and you can only watch so many 2-1 and 4-3 games before you start to lose your mind. Offence is fun, and the Jays didn’t have a whole lot of it last year; and this is what undid them in the playoffs. Pitching and defense does win championships, but you also have to find ways to score too.
Heading into this offseason, it was clear what the Jays needed; offense, offense, and more offense. Unfortunately, the free agent class wasn’t loaded with strong offensive players. Shohei Ohtani was undeniably the best player available, and the Jays pursued him hard and were serious about signing him before he ultimately signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Players like Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman would be the next best options, but you can’t be too sure what you are going to get from them on an offensive side. Both are great defensively, but for the amount of money they are asking for, a team would need more certainty on high offensive production, which neither have shown consistently over the last couple of seasons.
The Jays did make some moves though, as they brought back OF Kevin Kiermaier, and signed utility player Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and 3B/DH Justin Turner. None of these players significantly move the needle from an offensive perspective though, and while Turner had a good season with the Red Sox last year, he is 39 years old. Although, one of the biggest issues the Jays had last season was hitting with RISP, and Turner has done a very good job of that throughout his career. Last year he hit .338 with RISP, and for comparison, Chapman and Belt – the two players that he is likely replacing – hit .215 and .208 respectively.
These moves, while do help the Jays in some ways, are still looked at to be not enough to be able to compete with top teams in the AL like the Yankees, Rangers, Orioles, and Astros. So, if these are all the moves the Jays are going to make to address the lineup, it will be looked at as an extremely disappointing offseason. GM Ross Atkins met with the media at the start of Spring Training and while he can’t outright say whether or not the Jays are done making moves this offseason, he did suggest as much. “At this point, additions that would be of significance would mean some level of subtraction.” said Atkins. What this means for potential moves, who knows, but it does lead you to believe they won’t be signing any big names, and if any moves are to be made, they are likely via trade, and on a smaller scale.
If this is it, and the players they have are what they start the season with, will it be enough? On paper, probably not. The Jays’ front office seems to be hoping on strong bounce back seasons from key players like Springer, Kirk, and Vladdy, but putting a lot of stock into hope can be dangerous. While the Jays would need those three, among others to have strong seasons regardless of who they brought in this offseason, failing to significantly address a need that was so obvious is very confusing.
With how last season ended, there was some speculation that there could be changes made in the front office. Obviously, none were made, but it feels like Ross Atkins could be nearing the end of his tenure as GM if things don’t improve. The thought that Ross’ job may be on the line this season, could lead you to thinking that he would have been more aggressive in the offseason to bring in multiple players to help “save his job”, but so far, it does not appear to be the case. The conversation about whether or not Atkins should lose his job if the Jays have another disappointing season is an interesting one, and there are arguments that can be made on both sides. Ultimately though, it will come down to how ownership views Ross and the job they have done. If Rogers feels like they are spending all this money and not seeing any good returns, they could either stop wanting to spend, or look to bring in a new general manager to run things.
For the most part, Atkins has done a pretty good job with the Jays as he and the rest of the front office have put together a very good baseball team. They have made savvy trades, been aggressive in free agency, and have signed top-tier players. Has every move they made worked out? Of course not, but no front office is perfect. It is easy to harp on the few moves that may not have worked out, but there is no question that Ross and his team have made more positive moves than negative ones. Prior to 2015, the Blue Jays hadn’t made the playoffs in 22 years. Since this regime took over after the 2015 season, they have made the playoffs 4 times. If you want to exclude 2016 because they inherited that team, that’s fine, but still, making the playoffs three times in the last four years is still impressive.
At the end of the day, however, some will only consider things a success if their team is the one holding the trophy at the end of the season. While that is understandable and fair to a degree, solely basing a team’s success on the number of championships they win can be a little unfair given how difficult it is to win. Hopefully the Jays start the season strong so we don’t have to entertain these conversations any further, but if things go poorly, we could be in for some serious changes, with Ross Atkins’ name being at the top of the list.