Baseball is a long season and is filled with highs and lows for every team and player. During April and May, you will often hear the phrase, “it’s early” in response to both good and bad situations. This is because of how long the baseball season is and things can change drastically over a 6-month period. However, when is it no longer early? After a strong start to the season and finishing April with a 14-8 record, the Blue Jays struggled for most of May. Their biggest issue has been the lack of offence, and more specifically with runners in scoring position. The hitters have not been able to fire on all cylinders, and it has been infuriating to watch. Initial thoughts were that when Teoscar and Jansen returned from the injured list, the offence would heat up, however that wasn’t the case. Jansen has been hitting very well, but Teoscar has looked lost at the plate. With all their regulars healthy and in the lineup, there isn’t much that can be done, other than wait, and hope they start hitting. Manager Charlie Montoyo has even tried shuffling the lineup in the attempt to get some guys going, but until recently, had no great success.
As the team lost close games due to not being able to come up with the big hit, fans grew more and more frustrated, and have been looking for someone to blame. That someone, is hitting coach Guillermo Martínez. You may think it would be logical to blame and subsequently fire the coach who’s job it is to help the hitters, but in reality, he would just be a scapegoat. I don’t think the Jays should, or will fire him, but even if they did, it’s not going to magically make the team better. Teams will fire coaches mid-season to signal to fans that they aren’t happy with the on-field results, but the changes rarely make any significant difference. Martínez was the hitting coach last year when the team finished as one of the best offensive teams in the league, so is he really the problem? No, he isn’t, but that won’t stop the fans for calling for his head, nor does it mean his job is safe.
So, what is the biggest issue with the offence? First and foremost, it has been their inability to hit with runners in scoring position. As a team, they were hitting under .200 with RISP for most of the season and was the worst in baseball. It has only recently increased every so slightly. The Jays struggled early last season as well hitting with RISP, but it has been a lot worse so far this year. There are also a lot of other offensive stats that are down compared to last year. Obviously, it’s a smaller sample size so far given that we are only a couple months into the season, but stats like the team’s chase percentage, whiff rate, and ground ball percentage are worse this year. This means that the Jays are chasing more pitched that are out of the strike zone and are swinging-and-missing more. They are also hitting more ground balls which can lead to more double plays when there are runners on base and end rallies.
Other basic stats like batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging are also down this year, however there are reason to believe that this won’t last all season. First, is because we know what some of these players can do. Guys like Bichette, Teoscar, Chapman, and Vladdy are better than what they’ve done so far, and you have to think they will figure it out. Also, the team’s expected batting average is higher than there actual batting average, which essentially means that based on how they are hitting the balls, they should be getting more hits. This can imply that opposing teams are defending very well against them, and the Jays are hitting into bad luck. Their hard-hit percentage is also a little higher than last season, so they are still hitting the ball well, but more often than not, it’s just finding a glove. Something else that could also be impacting the team is the baseball. The baseballs that MLB is using this year is different than the ones they used last year. These ones are referred to as “dead balls”, meaning that they aren’t flying as far as previous years. More balls that look like sure-fire homeruns off the bat are dying at the warning track and are easy outs. This isn’t an excuse, as all teams are using them, but I do believe it has impacted some of the Jays’ offensive numbers.
At the end of the day, it comes down to execution. The coaches can try to help and guide the players, but the players have to step up to the plate and deliver, and right now, they aren’t. Guys who are expected to put up big number like Teoscar, Vladdy and Bichette, haven’t yet, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be able to turn it around. During their recent series against the LA Angels, they appeared to be breaking out of their slump. They have been putting together better at-bats, managed to string hits together and cash in the runners on base. They won a slugfest 11-10 Sunday afternoon, and hopefully this is the sign of things turning around. This team is built on offence, and while they’re not expected to put up 11 runs every game, if they seriously want to contend with the Yankees and other top teams, they must be able to get the clutch hit with RISP. The summer is just beginning and as the weather heats up, it’s expected the offence will as well.