The 2021 season begins tomorrow and that means it is time for division predictions! In this article I will break down each of the National League divisions and give my take on who I think will win each division, and who will claim the two wildcard spots.
NL WEST
The NL West is an exciting division, not because all five team are competitive and vying for a playoff spot, but because an argument could be made that the two best teams in the National League play in the West – the defending champions the LA Dodgers, and the young, up and coming San Diego Padres. The Giants, Diamondbacks, or the Rockies aren’t anywhere close to the talent levels of the Dodgers and Padres. The Giants and Diamondbacks are likely to be around 70-80 win teams, and the Rockies are probably going to be the second worst team in the league.
The Dodgers are the reigning World Champions and are the best overall team in baseball. They were the best team in all of 2020, and now they brought in Cy Young award winner Trevor Bauer, and David Price will be returning to their rotation after opting out of the 2020 season. Bauer and Price are two ace-calibre pitchers and would be the number one starter on nearly any other team, and they are likely the Dodgers’ number three and four pitchers respectively. Along with the best rotation in baseball, the lineup for the Dodgers is no joke. While they did lose a couple of good players in outfielder Joc Pederson, and utility man Enrique Hernandez, they have more than enough talent to cover. They are also hoping that this is the year for top prospect Gavin Lux to finally break out and become the superstar many expect him to be. Their bullpen could be their “weakest” point, but I use the term weakest very loosely. Kenley Jansen may not be the All-Star closer that he once was, but they have a lot of depth and with the addition of Bauer and Price to the rotation, that can move a couple of guys that would have started in either Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urias to the bullpen.
The Dodgers have won the division for eight straight years, with no real contention either. That could change this year, at least the Padres are hoping it does. Last year the Padres made the playoffs for the first time since 2006 and are primed to make it again this year. They may arguably have the best and most electric left side of the infield with superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and All-Star third baseman Manny Machado. They also made some big moves in the offseason to bolster their rotation by trading for 2020 NL Cy Young award runner-up Yu Darvish and former Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. With these moves, and other additions to their bullpen, the Padres are hoping to end the Dodgers’ long stranglehold as division champions.
My Prediction: While the Padres are going to be an exciting team to watch, I still pick the Dodgers to win their ninth straight NL West title. Vegas has the Dodgers’ win total at 102.5 and I will take the over on that as they are so much better than most of the other teams in the league. The Padres’ win total from Vegas is 94.5, and I would take the under. I do expect them to secure the first wild card spot, but with around 90 wins.
NL CENTRAL
The NL central is probably the weakest division in all of MLB. They have the Pirates, who are the worst team in the entire sport – and will probably lose 100 games – and the other four teams aren’t currently constructed as 90 wins teams. The Cardinals are probably the favourites to win the division after acquiring former Gold Glover and All-Star third baseman Nolen Arenado from the Rockies, but their offence still leaves a lot to be desired. They have decent pitching, but they need to find a way to score more runs.
The Cubs are the reigning Central winners but appear to be in a bit of a retooling phase. They traded their best pitcher in Yu Darvis to the Padres, lost veteran lefty Jon Lester to the Nationals in free agency, and have three of their best players – Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo – in the final year of their contracts. The Cubs do not have great pitching and in order to compete they would need their stars like Bryant and Baez to have great years. However, if either or both are playing well to start the year, I would expect the Cubs to trade either or even both at the deadline.
The Brewers are an intriguing team, because while they don’t have an overwhelming strength, they also don’t have any glaring weaknesses either. They have a decent rotation led by Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff who are two young starters forecasted to be future All-Stars. They have a good bullpen anchored with 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Devon Williams followed by All-Star closer Josh Hader. Their lineup should be better this year as well. Lorenzo Cain returns after opting out of last season, they signed Jackie Bradley Jr. and Kolten Wong, and it’s fair to assume that Christian Yelich’s poor 2020 season was an anomaly and he will return to his former MVP calibre self.
The Reds are probably going to take a step back this year as they lost their ace Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers in free agency, and they traded their closer to the Angels. They aren’t going to be a terrible team, as they still have decent starting pitching, but it is very unlikely they will compete for a playoff spot.
My Prediction: This is a hard one. Vegas has the Cardinals win total at 86.5, Brewers at 82.5 and Cubs at 79.5. I will choose the Brewers to win the division, so I will take the over for them, and expect them to win about 86 games. I will take the under on the Cardinals and the over on the Cubs, expecting them both to finish around .500.
NL EAST
The NL East is looked at as the best and toughest division in baseball right now. Unlike any other division, all five teams are trying to win and plan to be competitive this season (what a concept). The Braves are the favourites to win the division for the fourth year in a row. They came within a game of going to the World Series last year, and an argument can be made that they are the second-best team in the league. They brought back outfield slugger Marcel Ozuna, signed Charlie Morton who was coming off a good season with the Rays, and they expect to get young Canadian starter Mike Soroka back mid-season after he went down with an Achilles injury early in the 2020 season. They have a very good rotation and a potent lineup; their only weakness may be their bullpen, but that can be addressed as the season progresses.
The Mets could be Atlanta’s biggest threat to dethrone them as they are expected to have a big season based off the moves that were made in the offseason. The biggest acquisition was the blockbuster deal they made with Cleveland to acquire All-Star pitcher Carlos Carrasco and arguably the best shortstop in the game, Francisco Lindor. They also signed starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Marcus Stroman to help their rotation that is anchored by Jacob deGrom, the best pitcher in the game. The Mets have a very good and deep lineup, and a quality rotation, but their biggest problem could be that they are the Mets. What I mean by that is that they have a history of not meeting expectations, and tend to get in their own way. They have the talent, now it’s time for them to show up.
The Nationals are coming off a poor 2020, but after winning the World Series in 2019, losing their All-Star third baseman to free agency in that offseason, and losing one of their best pitchers Stephen Strasburg for the year with carpal tunnel neuritis, that was expected. Now, the Nats are looking to be competitive this year, and with their three-headed monster of a rotation of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin it will be hard not to be. They also have arguably the best hitter in the game in Juan Soto and have other good players in the lineup as well. Their biggest concern will be keeping their big horses on the field. Scherzer is going to be 37 in July and Strasburg is dealing with calf issues. For the Nats to be competitive at all this year, they need good seasons from these two workhorses.
The Phillies are an interesting team. They have been trying to be competitive for a few years now, but haven’t been able to finish with a record above .500. By far their biggest issue was their bullpen. Their bullpen wasn’t just bad, it was historically horrific. They had a collective ERA of 7.06 which is the second worst in the history of baseball only behind the 1930 Phillies who had an ERA of 8.16. They hope that the additions of Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado will help the bullpen, and just the fact that bullpens can be so fluid, it is unlikely for them all to be this bad again.
Lastly, we have the Marlins. Despite coming off a surprisingly good 2020 season where they finished with a record of 31-29 and made the playoffs, it is very likely that they will finish last in the division. However, unlike other division bottom-feeders like the Pirates and Rockies, the Marlins do look to be competitive this year. Are they going to be close to winning the division? No, but they have some good, young starting pitchers and their young lineup is starting to develop. They are still rebuilding, but they’re not the same terrible team that they were a few years ago. They benefited the most from the 60-game season last year and they don’t have the depth to do it over a full 162, but they will still be there trying to compete, and that’s more you can say about the other last place teams.
My Prediction: The division is still the Braves’ to lose. I think they are the second best team in the National League and will win their fourth straight division title. Their win total in Vegas is 91.5 and I would take the over, but not by much. They won’t win 100 games, but maybe closer to 95. I do think the Mets will finish second and claim the second wild card spot. Their Vegas win total is 90.5, and I will take the under. They’ll probably finish with around 88 wins. As for the Nationals, Phillies, and Marlins, I expect the Nats and Phillies to be around 80-84 wins and the Marlins to be around 72-75 wins.
Overall, the National League should be very entertaining to follow throughout the year. The Padres and Dodgers should battle for first in the division all season long, and their games against each other should feel like postseason games. Who knows what is going to happen in the Central? And the East is going to be a blood bath. All this should make for some very good, and meaningful baseball all season long.