We have just under three weeks left in the regular season, and the Blue Jays are currently in first place in the AL East. After losing 2/3 to the Yankees this weekend in New York, their lead is down to 2.0 games. Thankfully, the Jays hold the tiebreaker over the Yankees, meaning that if the Jays and Yankees finish tied, the Jays will win the division. This could be a battle down to the very last game, but this kind of stress is what most fans and players live for. When the season began, fans were hoping that the team would play meaningful baseball in September, but I don’t think even the most optimistic fan could’ve predicted how the season has played out.
The Jays have not been in first place this late into a season since 2015, which is also the last time they won the division. They have made the playoffs 4 times since then, but each as a wildcard team. If the Jays manage to hang on and win the division, they will likely find themselves with one of the two best records in the AL, giving them a bye into the ALDS.
The Jays have not played the cleanest baseball recently, and one of their biggest concerns as of late has been their bullpen. What was once arguable the strongest part of the team, has become a bit of a liability over the last few weeks. They have one of the higher bullpen ERAs in baseball in the second half, and the struggles haven’t just been with one or two guys, it’s been the entire pen. There isn’t a worse feeling than losing a lead late in the game, and if the Jays want to have a serious shot of a deep postseason run, their relievers have to pitch better. They pitched well this weekend against the Yankees, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits in 7.2 innings pitched, so hopefully this is a sign of them turning things around.
On the offensive side of the ball, they have continued to be who they’ve been all season, a pesky team that won’t strike out and will put the ball in play. They won’t severely overpower you, but they do need a couple of important power hitting players to step up. Since August 1st, Addison Barger is hitting .198/.243/.330 with only 4 homeruns. When the offense was going really well, he was in the middle of it, as he hit .330/.395/.442 with 15 homeruns from May 1st to July 31st. His struggles have been noticeably felt as he was previously looked at as a major threat in the lineup but has now become a relatively easy hitter for opposing pitchers to pitch to. He can hit the ball harder than most players, and the Jays need him to find that power stroke once again.
For postseason teams to succeed, they say “Your stars have to be stars”, and for the Jays, a couple of them – Bichette and Springer – have, but they still need one more to really catch fire. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is having a good season, but for a player of his caliber, it isn’t an elite season. He’s hitting .301/.394/.499 with an OPS of .893 and 23 homeruns, and while this is a really good season, there still hasn’t been that stretch where he goes on a heater and carries the team. He looked like he was getting really hot after the All-Star Break, but a hamstring injury in mid-August that caused him to miss 4 games may have halted that momentum.
Vladdy was hitting .362/.435/.690 with 9 homeruns from July 18th to August 18th which was the game he left early because of the hamstring. Then, from his return up until the start of this recent series against New York, he hit .222/.302/.333 with just 1 homerun. However, this series against the Yankees may have helped him get out of his funk. He’s always hit well against the Yankees and in New York specifically, but this weekend he went 8-13 with 2 doubles, a homerun, and two RBI. Hopefully this gets him really going again, because if the Jays are going to fend off the Yankees and win their first division in 10 years, they need Vladdy to be leading the charge.
All things considered, the Jays are in a good spot, however, these next few weeks will not be easy. They have games against teams fighting for playoff spots in Houston, Boston and Kansas City, and games against teams who have given the Jays fits at times this year in Tampa Bay and Baltimore. The Jays control their own destiny and if they want that top seed, it’s right there for the taking. They need to play their best and cleanest baseball, or else the Yankees will pass them. It will be a stressful few weeks, but there is nothing quite like meaningful September baseball, and coming into the season, that’s something we all hoped for. Now, it’s here, so sit back, stress out, and let’s see what happens.