The Blue Jays are headed to the playoffs! They officially clinched a playoff spot Thursday afternoon when the Orioles lost to the Red Sox, however there is still work to be done. They are battling the Rays and Mariners for the top wildcard spot which would give them homefield advantage for the wildcard round. This means that all three games of the wildcard series would be in Toronto. After nearly two years playing away from their fans in 2020 and most of 2021, manager John Schneider said there would be nothing better than playing the first round at home. Along with trying to secure that top spot, the Jays also have to look towards the playoffs and plan on who is going to start each game.
Currently, Alek Manoah is scheduled to pitch the final game of the regular season, and this was done in case the Jays need to win that game to secure homefield advantage. If homefield advantage is either secured or not attainable by that game, Manoah will certainly not pitch. Pitching Manoah in that final game is a huge risk because that will make him unavailable for the wildcard round.
This is a risk that I think is not worth taking. Manoah definitely gives the Jays the best chance to win any game, but at the same time, there is no guarantee that they will. The worst-case scenario is if Manoah pitches game 162, and they still lose the game. Then, they are playing the wildcard series on the road and without arguably their best pitcher. The Jays greatly benefit from having homefield in that first round, but I don’t think it’s worth burning Manoah for. I say, save him for game one of the playoffs, wherever that may be.
Now, if we assume that Manoah doesn’t pitch in the final game, he will undoubtedly be the game one starter, but how will the rest of the rotation fill out? Gausman is suspected to get game two, but game three is the one that is up in the air – at least in the minds of the fans. There has been constant debate about who will start the decisive game three should the series get there, with the options being between José Berríos and Ross Stripling.
It has been an up-and-down season for Berríos as he has struggled to find consistency for long stretches. He has had stretches where he has multiple quality starts in a row, and just when you think he has figured it out, he will blow up in the next game and can’t get out of the third inning. When Berríos is on, he can match up with almost anyone, but given his inconsistencies, would the Jays feel comfortable running him out there in a winner-take-all game?
Ross Stripling on the other hand, has been an unsung hero for the Jays. When Ryu went down due to injury in June, Stripling has slotted into Ryu’s spot quite nicely and has been a stabilizing force in the rotation. After returning from the injured list on August 17th, Stripling went six straight outings where he pitched at least 6 innings and allowed 3 or fewer runs in each of them. Stripling has certainly made a strong case for himself to get the ball in game three, and I think he will, but just not as the starter.
I think Berríos should and will start game three. Yes, he has been inconsistent all season, but I don’t think you can go down in the first round without handing the ball to him once. In a deciding game three, it will be all hands on deck and if Berríos starts, he will have a very short leash. If he gets into trouble early, you pull him, and this is where Stripling comes in. I think you can piggyback the two and have Stripling pitch in relief in case Berríos waivers early. Stripling has experience coming in from the bullpen and that’s why I have him follow Berríos if needed as opposed to vice versa.
If the Blue Jays want to get creative with their rotation, there is another way they could go about it. Again, let’s assume Manoah starts game one, and if the Jays win that game, they could have Berríos/Stripling start game two. This way, if they win game two and move on to the ALDS, Gausman will get the game one start. And if they lose game two, Gausman will start game three, and he gives you a very good chance to win that game. However, if the Jays lose game one with Manoah, you will have to pitch Gausman in the second game because you need to win that game, and again, he gives you the better chance to win and force a game three.
The idea to push Gausman to game three or a possible ALDS game one is an interesting one, and one I don’t doubt the Jays have thought of. An argument could be made to not try to get too clever with it and just pitch your starters based on who is better. Plus, if Gausman pitches game two, and you win, then you won’t have to worry about using Berríos or Stripling in a game three and they could start games one and two of the ALDC, which isn’t too bad anyway. If you try to mess with things, the “baseball Gods” could come into play and it could all blow up in your face. There are multiple ways the Jays could map out their starters and they have time to figure it out. I think the best method may be to not overthink it and run out Manoah, Gausman, and then Berríos. We’ve seen teams in the past try to get too clever and it not work out, so just run the horses out there in logical order and see what happens. We’ll see how the Blue Jays decided to play their cards, but one thing we do know, is that nothing beats playoff baseball in Toronto.