The baseball season is very long and most teams experience both good and bad stretches. They say you’re never as good as your best span of games and you’re never as bad as your worst. After finishing April with a record of 18-10, the Jays have gone 10-16 in May leading up to Memorial Day, and now find themselves last in the AL East. In this terrible month of games, the Jays have played poorly in nearly every facet of the game, and it seemed like the times they did one thing well, something else would cost them the game. If the starters gave them a quality outing, the lineup failed to score, and if the offence put up some numbers, the bullpen would give it up. As we are now a third of the way through the season, what are we to make of the Blue Jays, and who or what is to blame for the disappointing results?
When a team underperforms and doesn’t live up to its expectations, the first and easy person to blame is the manager. Fans often call for the manager’s head because he is the easiest person to blame and replace. However, aside from maybe a few questionable pinch-hit decisions and bullpen moves, John Schneider has done a fine job at managing the team. So, unless he has lost the clubhouse and the players don’t respond or play hard for him, he isn’t the problem, and likely won’t go anywhere. There also isn’t a viable replacement for him if he were to get fired. Last year when Charlie Montoyo got fired halfway through the season, they had Schneider there to replace him, which I think was going to happen eventually. This year, they don’t have that guy, as I don’t think bench coach Don Mattingly would be a better manager than Schneider.
At a certain point, you just have to look at the players and point the finger at them. The Jays have a very talented team, but a lot of guys that were expected to contribute in a meaningful way, haven’t. In baseball, you often hear the term “aircraft carrier” to describe a player that is looked at as one the cornerstones of the franchise and expected to carry the team. Guys like Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, and Bryce Harper are aircraft carriers for their respective teams, and more often than not, they come through in a big spot. For the Jays, their expected aircraft carriers are Bo and Vladdy and so far this season, only one of them has held up his end of the bargain. Bo has been excellent all season and at times has been the only one hitting. He leads the league in hits, and leads the Jays in WAR. Vladdy on the other hand, isn’t having a bad season by any means, but he isn’t having the kind of season everyone expects him to. He has hit around .300 for most of the season, but it has felt like a soft .300 as he hasn’t hit for a lot of power, only hitting 8 homeruns and slugging .463. He has also struggled a lot more recently and while his overall season numbers aren’t too bad, when you are expected to be an offensive force in the middle of the lineup, they need to be better than what they have been. He also hasn’t delivered in big situations or come up with that big hit to blow a game open, or get the Jays back into it. In high leverage situations he has a Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 73 and with 100 being league average, this means he is 27 points worse than the average big leaguer. For comparison, Vladdy had a wRC+ of 157 in high leverage situations in 2021 when he finished second in MVP voting, and Bichette currently has a wRC+ of 186 this season.
A few of other hitters that haven’t contributed much so far this season have been Springer, Kirk, and Varsho. While these guys may not be considered “aircraft carriers” they certainly play important roles on this team. Springer is the sparkplug at the top of the lineup and when he goes, the team goes. He can set the table for the guys behind him, but he can also drive in runs when the bottom of the order gets on. Until recently, he had not been swinging the bat well, and they need him to be that dynamic leadoff hitter that they signed him to be.
The catching tandem of Jansen and Kirk was thought to be one of the best catching duos in baseball, and the Jays had so much confidence in them that they traded their top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno. Unfortunately, both Jansen and Kirk have gotten off to slow starts, and while Jansen had recently gotten on one of his hot streaks prior to his injury, Kirk is still searching. Kirk started off slow last season, and then turned into an All-Star. So, it’s possible that he can turn his season around, but he needs to do it soon, especially with Jansen going on the injured list.
Daulton Varsho was one of the big additions that the Jays made in the offseason when they traded the aforementioned Moreno, along with Lourdes Gurriel Jr., for him. In the Jays’ attempt to add more balance to their lineup and better outfield defence, they brought in the likes of Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier. Kiermaier has played as advertised, but Varsho is still struggling. He has played well defensively and has shown flashes of what he can provide from an offensive side, but he hasn’t managed to be consistent. The Jays have hit him cleanup for most of the season, and I don’t think that was a good spot for him. He isn’t a cleanup hitter, and it’s possible he may have been putting too much pressure on himself as most guys do when they come to a new team. Hopefully, they can leave him down in the order, and he can find his rhythm and lengthen out the lineup.
On the pitching side, Alek Manoah has been a big disappointment. After finishing third in AL Cy Young award voting last season, the Jays were hoping for another strong season from the young righty. However, he has been the Jays’ worst pitcher and currently has an ERA over 5.00. Command has been his biggest issue as he is walking way more batters than he has in the past and has struggled to put away hitters when he gets to two strikes. The Jays will only get as far as their rotation will take them, and if they have any hopes of making the playoffs, they need Manoah to get back on track.
The Jays have also not played well collectively on the bases and in the field. There have been so many sloppy and poor decisions made that have been costly. Most of the games the Jays have played this month have been against some of the best teams in league, and when you play the best teams, you cannot afford to make errors and give them extra outs. This team isn’t made up of a bunch of young rookies that are new to the big leagues that need the coaches to explain to them how to play the game. There are a lot of veterans and even the young players have been in the league for a few years now, so they should know better than to make the kind of errors they have made. There is no excuse for careless mistakes and there is almost nothing the coaching staff can do. The Jays are last in the East, and they certainly look like a last place team. They have played bad baseball all month and while fans grow frustrated and clamor for change, there really aren’t any obvious changes to make. It’s too early for trades, and there are no prospects banging at the door to be called up. This isn’t on the manager or coaches or even the front office. This is on the players who aren’t playing good baseball and aren’t playing to the numbers on the back of their baseball card. If the Jays have any hope to make the playoffs, they need their superstars to show up, because if not, they will be one of the biggest disappointments of the season.